Guest poster Ernest Evans is here with his annual report
"With Malice Toward None, With Charity Toward All" By Dr. Ernest Evans
"A Tale of Two Cities: Crime in KCMO, 2007-2010"
In 2010 crime patterns in KCMO continued the trends that had been the norm in 2008 and 2009. Since 2007, there has been a slight but real decline in homicides in the white/asian/hispanic neighborhoods of the city--and a massive surge in homicides in the black neighborhoods of the city. Here are the statistics: In 2007 there were 94 homicides in KCMO--62 black and 32 other races. In the following years here are the homicide statistics: 2008: 95 black/31 other races. 2009: 81 black/29 other races. 2010: 81 black/25 other races. And, alarming as these homicide figures are for the black neighborhoods of the city, I feel that they tell only part of the story of the near collapse of order in these neighborhoods: Students of crime have often noted that there is a "counter-cyclical" movement of homicide rates to other crime stats: When homicides go up sharply in certain neighborhoods, other forms of violence "fall"--they do not actually decrease, but people are so afraid of the power of the gangs and criminal elements that they stop reporting crimes. This appears to have happened in the black neighborhoods of KCMO since 2007. The converse is also true: When homicides in certain neighborhoods fall significantly, other forms of crime "rise"--they rise because people feel safe enough to start reporting crimes to the police again. This past year in Detroit there was a 26% drop in homicides--not surprising, other forms of crime "increased" because people felt safer about reporting crimes. Another, quite alarming fact in crime in KCMO in 2010: A further decline in the clearance rate of homicides: These clearance rates had fallen in 2008 and 2009 to about 50%--in 2010 they further fell to about 40%. A massively disproportionate number of these unsolved homicides are black homicides--it is increasingly the case that in the black neighborhoods of KCMO one can get away with murder.
"Why This Crime Surge in the Black Neighborhoods of KCMO?"